A recent analysis on Queensland’s state election impacts predicts notable shifts in the residential property market once voting concludes.
Research by Place Advisory, based on data from the past three electoral cycles, indicates that property sales could experience a substantial double-digit increase post-election.
The projections suggest that regardless of the winning party, market confidence may rise, leading to a 10–15% boost in sales during the quarter following the election. Historically, the real estate market tends to pause as buyers take a wait-and-see approach around election time, but it typically rebounds shortly afterward. This pattern was observed in the 2020 election, where sales surged by 15% after the Labor party retained power.
Previous election cycles also saw increases: sales rose by 9.2% when Labor replaced the Liberal Party in 2012 and by 9.3% when the Liberal National Party defeated the ALP in 2015. House prices similarly climbed after each election, with a 9.5% rise in 2020, compared to smaller increases of 2% and 5.9% in the 2012 and 2015 cycles, respectively.
Place Advisory notes that the rise in median house prices likely wasn’t directly due to the governing party but rather an upward trend in the Brisbane market. “The market reacted positively to both election outcomes (a change of government and continuity), which implies that the certainty provided post-election might be more influential than the result itself.”
Place co-founder Damian Hackett noted a tendency toward indecision among a segment of the population during uncertain times, including elections. “It’s a trend seen both federally and at the state level,” he explained. While federal elections often have broader economic impacts, state election uncertainties are often associated with local employment and development concerns, such as preparations for the 2032 Olympics.
Hackett observed that the timing of the 2024 state election—amidst the prime spring selling season—could extend the typical sales peak into December. “With September, October, and November already high in sales volumes, the election might further lift activity into December.” He added that Brisbane’s auction clearance rates in the coming weeks will be worth watching, especially in comparison to New South Wales and Victoria, where no state elections are occurring.
